应急物资公路运输路径优化模型的建立及求解

对应急物资运输时效性和可靠性两方面因素进行了数学描述,在分别对两个指标进行了无量纲化处理后建立了线性加权和效用函数模型,在具体算例中又将效用函数变形为关于λ的线性函数,最后通过坐标系作图将分析结果更直观地表达出来,以供应急物资调度人员根据其具体情况要求更方便快捷地选择应急物资公路运输的最优路径。     

寻找理性经济行为的逻辑新起点——试论中国传统伦理下的中庸理性经济人

在主流经济学的视野中,追求效用最大化是社会个体理性行为的基本准则。文章认为主流经济学理性假设的根本问题在于没有揭示特定人类社会的独特复杂特征。主流经济学家忽略了在现实生活中存在于西方文明之外的实然——中庸理性。文章尝试在以中庸理性为假设的理性经济人模型基础上,探讨中国传统伦理下中庸理性经济人的演化及其存在的可能空间。     

Risk, uncertainty, and option exercise

Many economic decisions can be described as an option exercise or optimal stopping problem under uncertainty. Motivated by experimental evidence such as the Ellsberg Paradox, we follow Knight (1921) and distinguish risk from uncertainty. To capture this distinction, we adopt the multiple-priors utility model. We show that the impact of ambiguity on the option exercise decision depends on the relative degrees of ambiguity about continuation payoffs and termination payoffs. Consequently, ambiguity may accelerate or delay option exercise. We apply our results to investment and exit problems, and show that the myopic NPV rule can be optimal for an agent having an extremely high degree of ambiguity aversion.     

Pricing of the time-change risks

We develop an equilibrium endowment economy with Epstein-Zin recursive utility and a Lévy time-change subordinator, which represents a clock that connects business and calendar time. Our setup provides a tractable equilibrium framework for pricing non-Gaussian jump-like risks induced by the time-change, with closed-form solutions for asset prices. Persistence of the time-change shocks leads to predictability of consumption and dividends and time-variation in asset prices and risk premia in calendar time. In numerical calibrations, we show that the risk compensation for Lévy risks accounts for about one-third of the overall equity premium.     

论经济学价值论的三个基本问题

价值本质、价值源泉和价值尺度是价值论的三个基本问题,它们决定价值论的性质,并通过价值论决定经济学的性质。古典政治经济学对这三个问题的回答有两种路线,逐渐演化出两种对立的价值论和经济学体系。两种经济学在理论和实践中的隔阂和对立使价值论以不同的方式退出了经济学的研究范围。中国建设社会主义与市场经济的社会实践对两种经济学的融合与突破提出了迫切需要,也提供了现实条件,这就要求对价值论展开广泛深入的研究。     

市场经济下的功利追求与党的优良传统再教育

市场经济的功利性通过各种途径、方式渗透到我国的教育领域。追求功利,把市场经济绝对化,使传统与现代、未来断裂,以追求利益为目的的“求真务实”成为主流,形成社会无批评意识,膨胀的物欲泛滥。红色文化边缘化,党的优良传统被弱化。在市场经济背景下,高校应当加强党的优良传统再教育,把培养全面发展的高素质人才放在首要地位,     

效用理论在保险决策中的应用

效用函数的凹凸性将风险态度进行了三类划分：风险中性型、风险厌恶型、风险喜好型。本文从效用理论出发研究了不同的风险态度决策人的不同的风险决策结果,讨论了效用理论在保险产品的定价中的应用,并根据不同的风险态度和不同的损失分布函数确定最优投保方式.     

The Value of Changes in Deer Season Length: An Application of the Nested Multinomial Logit Model

Increasing deer populations can be controlled through manipulatingharvest limits or season length. While such actions often result in benefitsto hunters, both motorists and the agricultural sector also benefit as alower deer population leads to fewer incidences of harmful human-deerencounters. Traditional recreation demand models are often employed toexamine the welfare implications of changes in daily hunting bag limits.Studies measuring the effects of changes in season length, however, arenoticeably absent from the literature. This study uses a nested randomutility model to examine hunter choice over site and season selection toderive the values of changes in season length.     

Statistical Decision Problems and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods

This paper considers parametric statistical decision problems conducted within a Bayesian nonparametric context. Our work was motivated by the realisation that typical parametric model selection procedures are essentially incoherent. We argue that one solution to this problem is to use a flexible enough model in the first place, a model that will not be checked no matter what data arrive. Ideally, one would use a nonparametric model to describe all the uncertainty about the density function generating the data. However, parametric models are the preferred choice for many statisticians, despite the incoherence involved in model checking, incoherence that is quite often ignored for pragmatic reasons. In this paper we show how coherent parametric inference can be carried out via decision theory and Bayesian nonparametrics. None of the ingredients discussed here are new, but our main point only becomes evident when one sees all priors—even parametric ones—as measures on sets of densities as opposed to measures on finite-dimensional parameter spaces.